An Existing Business, or a Startup?

The whole subject of startups has grown a glossy crust of stories about fast success and easy money. But who should really throw themselves into this chase after the dream — and who shouldn’t?

I started investing in startups in 2018, and by 2021 one of those companies had gone public on NASDAQ — a sevenfold return! Today my personal portfolio holds more than twenty companies. I hope that experience lets me share something practical rather than theory.

Over time I’ve come to think there are two main cases where it makes sense to become a startup founder:

— when you’re young, and an all-or-nothing bet is simply fine. Whatever the outcome, you walk away with priceless experience and connections — and you’re no worse off!

— after you’ve earned real success and recognition in some field, when investors are ready to put ten million dollars or more behind your ideas to launch something large from day one.

But what about those who already have a more or less stable business (or career) and are toying with a radically new idea?

Is it worth throwing it all away for the uncertainty of a startup whose statistical odds of survival are no higher than 3%? A startup will demand your attention 24/7, and the success stories the press loves so much are rare exceptions.

The single most important question to ask yourself: “What have I historically been best at in life — where the return on effort was highest and I felt happy?” Does the answer line up with your new idea? Or is the idea just an imitation of whatever happens to be hot right now?

In Dubai, in 2022–2023, I watched plenty of enthusiasts who’d let a thriving business or career back in Russia wither away while they rushed off to become founders.

When you already have a base that brings in income and lets you live above your basic needs, it’s worth thinking about how to build innovative products on top of it, putting the competencies you’ve already developed to work. Those ideas can become the very startup you’re after — without losing what you built with so much effort and time. The path to a global market becomes just a new step, not the burning of bridges.

Tearing down is always easier than building. Creating something truly meaningful takes not just ideas, but many years of stubborn work.