On Murphy's Law

“Anything that can go wrong will go wrong” — that’s Murphy’s law, the patron saint of surprises and problems we never saw coming. But underneath it hides another truth: the higher our expectations, the harder we get hit when something slips off the plan. Especially when we’ve staked too much, flattered by how well we think we understand the situation, and quietly underrating the risks.

Picture it: we spend money counting on future income that feels guaranteed. Or we buy materials for a contract that’s just about to be signed — the “rock-solid handshake” is already in place. Maybe we take out a loan for an investment that looks like a sure thing, since it paid off before. Or we move an important talk to an earlier date, certain we’ll get everything done before the next big event.

All of these share one trait: the higher our expectations, and the more we depend on a successful outcome, the more exposed we become to reality’s blows. As our stakes rise, we fall into the trap of our own hopes. And right where everything used to run smoothly, the situation suddenly unfolds along the most absurd script imaginable — the rakes we never even knew were there start firing one by one.

Behind these problems there’s often haste, and beneath the haste — a hunger for gain and a belief in our own exceptionalism: we’re the ones who’ll get lucky, we’re the ones in control of how things play out. And so we rush forward, forgetting common sense, taking on more and more risk. The result — worse decisions, more mistakes, and failures we walked straight into.

Yes, at times these situations can’t be avoided. So what do we do? When it feels like time is running out and we need to act right now, the smartest move is to slow down. Don’t rush. On the contrary — that’s exactly the moment to give planning special attention, to think through every possible threat and assumption. To admit that everything could go wrong, and not to leave it to chance. Betting on “it’ll probably work out” is the very mechanism that switches Murphy’s law on.

Haste and too much confidence in success put us in a vulnerable position.

Our goal is to keep as many options open as possible at every stage. The more freedom of action we have, the less we depend on a single outcome, and the better we can handle the unexpected. It’s worth foreseeing as many points of failure as we can and minimizing their impact: think through fallback steps, draw up plans B, C, and even D.

With a space of options and a clear eye on the dangers, we’re ready for any surprise — and we keep our inner calm.

Here’s to all of us slowing down, keeping alternatives in reserve, and staying ready for any turn of events! 😎